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Ethiopia politics: Averting a crisis?

COUNTRY BRIEFING

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

Ethiopia appears to have stepped back from a political crisis between the government and opposition over the result of the parliamentary election, but this will only be confirmed if the opposition takes its seats at the opening of parliament on October 10th rather than staging a boycott. The unexpected and violent stand-off since the May election has unnerved the foreign donors on whom Ethiopia’s economy depends.

Political tensions in Ethiopia have been running high since the opposition made huge gains in the May 15th parliamentary election. After a long delay, due to allegations of fraud and claims of logistical failings, final results showed that the two main opposition coalitions, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) and the United Ethiopian Democratic Front (UEDF), had gained 173 seats in the 547 seat parliament. Previously, they had just 12 seats.

Among donors, it was assumed that the opposition’s success in the elections—and the fact that international monitors declared the process to be largely free and fair—would underpin stability in the country. The fact that the government was prepared to accept a much greater opposition presence in parliament, having allowed opposition politicians access to state television and radio during the campaign, was also encouraging. In the year prior to the election, Ethiopia was stable. As a result, foreign donors were able to implement aid programmes and lay plans for more extensive schemes, while also learning valuable and transferable lessons about the delivery of aid programmes.

Not according to plan

Opposition leaders, however, refused to accept the final result, claiming that the government has stolen the election in order to remain in power. Tensions escalated, and on June 8th 36 people died at a large opposition rally in the capital, Addis Ababa. In an attempt to reduce the risk of violence, the prime minister, Meles Zenawi, had declared a month-long ban on all political demonstrations. Street protests went ahead regardless, leading to clashes as government security forces sought to break-up the “illegal” demonstrations. Thereafter the government placed Hailu Shawul, the head of CUD, and his deputy under house arrest for allegedly inciting the protests.

By late September, it seemed there was little chance that the opposition would legitimise the election by taking its seats at the scheduled opening of parliament on October 10th. Its leaders were particularly concerned that parliamentary procedures would limit their effectiveness. Mr Zenawi signalled a willingness to discuss the matter, provided that the opposition attended parliament. Yet at the same time he threatened the CUD and UEDF deputies with jail if they boycotted parliament and also accused the opposition of planning an insurrection.

As the political stalemate persisted, tensions in the country rose. There have been extensive reports of opposition supporters being arrested around the country (especially in the Amhara region), while a heavy military presence is being maintained in Addis Ababa. Plans for an opposition rally on October 2nd were cancelled just days before, as the government refused a licence request and also announced that it would not be held responsible for whatever happened if the rally went ahead.

Foreign aid

After cancelling the rally, the opposition called for its supporters to hold a three-day strike from October 3rd-5th. This was called off at the eleventh hour, largely as the result of extensive mediation by foreign diplomats in the country—especially the UK and US embassies. Government and opposition thereafter entered negotiations.

As a result, it seems that the outlook is positive for a peaceful conclusion to the political problems in Ethiopia. The fact that the government and the CUD and UEDF are now in talks has demonstrated that both sides are keen to avoid violence. The improving political situation is a huge relief for international donors as well, for they would be under pressure to curtail or cease their support programmes in Ethiopia—which have been set up in response to the high levels of poverty in the country—if the political situation were to deteriorate further.

The continuation of aid flows is vital for the Ethiopian economy. In 2004/05, foreign aid to the country amounted to nearly US$1bn—equivalent to nearly 10% of GDP. Continued donor engagement is thus essential for the country’s economic prospects and the implementation of planned reforms to boost agricultural growth, exports and private-sector investment. While the prospects currently are positive, donors will be unable to count on the restoration of political stability until parliament reconvenes and the opposition makes a final decision on whether or not to take its seats.

SOURCE: ViewsWire Africa

© 2008 The Sidama Concern