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A Linear Model for Predicting Enset Plant Yield and Assessment of Kocho Production in Ethiopia 

 


By Dr. Robert Shank and Chernet Ertiro

Prepared for World Food Programme
Ministry of Agriculture
Southern Nations, Nationalities, Peoples' Regional State
UNDP Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia
May, 1996
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Table of Contents

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND INFORMATION
 
Definition of Terms

The Need for Assessing Enset Production
bulletEnset production data of the past
bulletAttempts to measure Enset yields
bulletProduction assessment methods and survey techniques
The Enset Cropping Areas
bullet Cropping systems
bullet Nutritional comparisons
bullet Production reliability and improvements needed
METHODOLOGY OF THE ENSET PLANT YIELD REGRESSION STUDY

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION OF THE PLANT YIELD REGRESSION STUDY
bulletPlant sampling
bulletDevelopment of the regression equation
Factors that could bias the regression relationship
bulletProcessing status of the samples measured
bulletPlant architecture
bulletSeasonal moisture content
bulletProcessing methodology
bulletPlant maturity  
METHODOLOGY OF ASSESSMENT OF HOUSEHOLD AND NATIONAL KOCHO PRODUCTION

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION OF HOUSEHOLD AND NATIONAL KOCHO PRODUCTION
bulletNumber and measurement of plants harvested
bulletProduction per plant, per household and per hectare
bulletNational production and hectarage in Ethiopia
bulletComparison to previous assessment data
bulletEffect of age structure and early harvesting on assessment
Factors influencing Enset production and hectarage in Ethiopia
bulletEnset food utilization and household food security
bulletHousehold financial security in relation to Enset cropping
bulletDe-villagization, land tenure and land resource allocation
bulletFree market systems and commercial production
bulletDiseases and pests of Enset
Future Developments in Enset utilization
bulletOverpopulation, rural poverty and cereal price parity
bulletSpread of Enset growing to Eastern and Northern areas
bulletUrban poverty, food prices and cultural traditions
bulletUse in mixed flours for injera and other products
bulletSoil fertility, land degradation and fertilizer costs
bulletLand shortage and livestock forage needs
bulletIntercropping with legumes and cereals  
List of Tables

Table 1. Crop assessment and food aid needs for Ethiopia for 1993 and 1994.
Table 2. Annual national food production in Ethiopia for the years 1987-1993.
Table 3. Hectarage and production of Enset products in the Southern Ethhiopia Peoples Administrative Region in 1994.
Table 4. Kocho yield statistics for individually measured plants by age and region.
Table 5. Effect of transplanting on Enset growth and Kocho yield.
Table 6. Enset cropping data from sample farms of the Southern Ethiopia Peoples Administrative Region in march, 1995.
Table 7. Nutritive value of some common foods consumed in the Enset growing areas.
Table 8. Distribution of Kocho plant samples by weight categories.
Table 9. Enset plants measurement and derived Kocho weight data used in formulating the regression model.
Table 10. The correlation matrix for plant Kocho yield with plant size characters over the 60 sample cases.
Table 11. Estimation of plant Kocho yields using a range of plant measurements substituted into the regression equation.
Table 12. Plants harvested and plant measurements and plantation hectarage for 100 households sampled by wereda, zone and region.
Table 13. Enset production per plant, per household and per wereda from the survey data.
Table 14. Reported Enset hectarage, production and production/ hectare as compared to assessment study data.
 

List of Figures

Figure 1. Parts of the Enset plant.
Figure 2. Geographic map of the Enset growing area.
Figure 3. Wereda map of the Enset growing area.
Figure 4. Agroecological map of the Enset growing area.

List of Graphs

Graph 1. Graph of predicted Kocho production for various plant measurements using the regression equation.
Diagram of the Enset Plants
 
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